Ever noticed how half the analysts on an earnings call update their models when the CFO mentions "normalized working capital" while the rest just blindly write it down? That’s the difference between reading a spreadsheet and actually understanding a business.

A good business isn't automatically a good stock. Here are a few things to look out for:

• PAT can lie but Free Cash Flow doesn't. Watch what actually consumes the cash instead of just looking at the headline profit.

• ROCE is the real truth teller. A company earning 35% ROCE compounds wealth, while one earning 9% with debt slowly destroys it.

• Gross margins reveal pricing power. If margins hold during a demand downturn, you've found structural power.

(Quick disclaimer: I am not SEBI registered, so please do not take this as investment advice! This is purely for educational purposes.)

I've broken down the mental models serious fund managers use to read companies in my latest piece, bridging the gap between fundamental and technical analysis. Check out the link in the comments or tune into the podcast version!

https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-gap-between-a-good-business-and

Found this interesting? Follow Shubham Singh for more such insights.

👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApp:

https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K

👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/

👉 Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on Insta

https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

#Investing #StockMarket #Valuation #Finance #FundamentalAnalysis

Day 28/100
Ever wonder how the pills in your medicine cabinet actually get made? We usually just look at the logo on the bottle, but the foundational chemistry happens much earlier in the supply chain.

I've been analyzing Divi’s Laboratories, a massive operation in Vishakhapatnam that acts as the quiet backbone for 12 of the world's top 20 pharma innovators.

(Quick disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered advisor, so please don't take this as investment advice! I'm just sharing some fascinating business mechanics).

Here is what makes their model so resilient:
The Hidden Moat: Once an innovator builds a clinical trial around Divi's specific chemistry, switching suppliers can trigger massive regulatory delays and cost millions in forgone revenue.

Looking Beyond PE: Trailing PE misses the mark because custom synthesis revenue is milestone-based. Their ~20.45% ROCE is a much stronger signal of their capital quality.

Global Infrastructure: As global supply chains actively move to reduce their dependency on China, Divi's functions more like an irreplaceable infrastructure asset than a standard pharma stock.

Check out my full deep dive into the supply chain no one draws correctly to learn more!
https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/divilabs-the-infrastructure-that
Found this interesting?
Join our Community Channel for FREE on WhatsApp
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AZNIZAA6GXOK

Also if you are on insta (of course you are), Follow me on Insta.
https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

#Investing #PharmaSector #CDMO #BusinessStrategy #StockMarket #100DaysWithTVS

Day 27/100

India's manufacturing story has a massive blind spot. Did you know that after four years, less than 8% of the ₹1.91 lakh crore PLI incentives have actually been disbursed?

First, a quick disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered advisor, so none of this is investment advice. But the data from the ground speaks volumes:

1. The Winners: Electronics and Telecom thrived because the incentive structures perfectly matched their rapid capex cycles and production realities.

2. The Misses: Specialty Steel and Textiles are struggling with deep structural and policy mismatches.

3. The Auto Irony: The Auto PLI requires massive upfront capital, essentially locking out true EV innovators and rewarding legacy incumbents.

We are now entering Phase Two, shifting from large scale assembly to a deep tech component ecosystem. That gap is exactly where the next decade of unpriced value lies.

Check out my full deep dive into the realities of these schemes and what they actually mean for the market!

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-pli-mirage-which-schemes-actually?r=5uwf28

Found this interesting? Share it in your study group[s]/ or on LinkedIn

👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on whatsapp:

https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K

👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack.

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/

👉 Also if you are on Insta (of course you are), Follow me on Instagram.

https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

Day 26/100

What separates a decent investment from a massive wealth compounder? It isn't the quarter where earnings beat estimates or an analyst upgrades the stock.

But the real wealth is made quarters before the market catches on, hidden quietly in a company’s balance sheet through structural operating leverage.

Think of Reliance Jio or TSMC. They spent billions building massive fixed-cost machines, meaning early returns often looked terrible to the average observer. But once they hit an inflection point in asset utilization, every new customer or order drops almost entirely to the bottom line. In these setups, when revenue grows 25%, your profit can jump over 60%.

My latest piece breaks down how to spot these structural compounders before the crowd does, tracking signals like incremental ROCE instead of waiting for headline news. We also look at the specific sectors where this exact math is playing out right now.

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-hidden-gear-how-operating-leverage?r=5uwf28

Found this interesting? Share it in your study group[s]/ or on LinkedIn

👉 Join our Community Channel for FREE on whatsapp:

https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbCUIyF3AzNIZAA6GX0K

👉 Check my deep dives on various topics on Substack.

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/

👉 Also if you are on Insta (of course you are), Follow me on Instagram.

https://instagram.com/spicapitalresearch

Everyone chases the headline stock but the most explosive wealth is often built one step removed.

During India’s renewable push, solar developers took on massive execution and tariff risks. Meanwhile, Apar Industries, a quiet company simply making the transmission conductors they all needed & surged over 1,800%.

In the U.S. AI boom, while everyone watched Nvidia, the deeper proxy was ASML, quietly holding a monopoly on the machines that make the chips possible.

This is proxy investing: finding the "picks and shovels" businesses that capture a sector’s growth without carrying its core cyclical or regulatory risks. But you might ask, what’s the catch? By the time mainstream analysts publish their buy ratings, the easy money is usually gone.

I recently published a framework on how to identify these invisible compounders, understand their true moats and spot the exact moment a proxy trade becomes too crowded. Read the full breakdown below

Please note this is not investment advice.

Found this interesting? Follow Equity Decoded by Spirit Podcast for more such insights, also if possible, restack/repost this.

Thanks.

#ProxyInvesting #Investing #Finance #Valuation #India #StockMarket

Day 23/100

Lemon Tree Hotels is arguably one of India's most misunderstood hospitality plays right now. While many investors are still anchored to backward-looking P/E ratios and consolidated financials, they're missing the structural shift that's already underway.

The real story is the demerger. The business has been split into two distinct entities: a real estate heavy ownership vehicle backed by a fresh ₹960 crore injection from Warburg Pincus, and a pure play, asset light management and brand platform. By ring-fencing roughly ₹1,300 crore of debt into the ownership vehicle, the management entity emerges essentially debt-free, & free to scale through high margin franchise fees the way Marriott and Hilton do, without the weight of owned real estate on its books.

The timing matters too. India's mid market hospitality segment is serving roughly 300 million strong and fast growing middle class, remains chronically underserved by quality branded hotels. Lemon Tree is positioning itself as the franchise infrastructure layer for exactly that demand.

Applying a trailing P/E to a company going through this kind of structural transformation is simply the wrong tool. My latest deep dive breaks down the demerger mechanics, the macro tailwinds, and why this looks like a once in a lifecycle inflection point for the business.

Full analysis below 👇

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-lemon-tree-indias-most-interesting?r=5uwf28

Share this so it can reach more curious brains like yours.

NOTE: This analysis is for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

#IndianStockMarket #EquityResearch #LemonTreeHotels #IndiaHospitality #StockAnalysis #InvestingInIndia #CapitalAllocation #ValueInvesting

Day 22/100

India's AI and cloud boom is generating enormous investment hype, but the physical reality underneath it is far more interesting than the headline numbers suggest.

Strip away the tech narrative and a data center is essentially a hard asset business that operates like a utility. The real competitive moats aren't the buildings, they're securing the right land, navigating 18 month power allocations from DISCOMs and deploying liquid cooling to handle AI racks pulling 30 to 50 kW each.

My latest piece digs into the hidden mechanics of this sector, past the hype and into the actual grid bottlenecks, the structural demand drivers and how listed players like Anant Raj, E2E Networks, Netweb, and Techno Electric are each carving out a very different position in the same opportunity.

If you're tracking or investing in India's digital infrastructure, the physical constraints are the story, not the MW pipelines and hyperscaler LOIs.

Full breakdown below, now also available as a podcast on Spotify and YouTube. 👇

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-race-to-own-indias-digital-spine

Follow us for more such deep dives.

#DataCentres #IndiaTech #CloudComputing #Hyperscalers #Investing #StockMarket #finance #EquityResearch

Day 21/100

Ever notice how we obsess over solar parks, data centers, and EVs, but completely ignore what connects them all?

Today, I published a new deep dive: “The Wire Behind Everything: A Deep Dive Into India's Cable Sector”

This ₹92,000 crore market is the literal nervous system of India’s modernization. But investing here isn’t simple. As many investors fall for a classic valuation trap, mistaking copper driven price inflation for actual volume growth.

In this piece, I break down: Why cables aren’t just “copper wrapped in plastic”. The crucial difference between Polycab’s retail moat and KEI’s B2B playbook. Why EBITDA per kg and ROCE are the metrics that actually matter.

If you want to know where the smart money has been quietly building positions, give it a read. The podcast version is also live on Spotify and YouTube!

Let me know your thoughts below! 👇

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-wire-behind-everything-a-deep?r=5uwf28

Share this so it can reach more curious brains like yours.