Welcome back to Episode 115 of the Canadian Private Lenders Podcast!

Ryan and Neal kick off 2026 by breaking down what fix-and-flip investing really looks like in today’s more balanced Canadian real estate market. With buyer behavior shifting, inventory rising, and exits becoming less predictable, this episode dives into where opportunities still exist, and where lenders and investors need to be far more conservative.

The conversation covers real-world market conditions in Halifax, the GTA, and Calgary, how underwriting standards should evolve in 2026, and why making money on the buy, not the market, matters more than ever.

Whether you’re a private lender, broker, or active real estate investor, this episode is a practical reset on risk, expectations, and disciplined deal analysis for the year ahead.

Show Notes:

00:00 – Welcome to Episode 115 & kicking off 2026

02:18 – Are fix & flips “back” in 2026? Setting the stage

03:54 – Halifax market update: inventory, pricing & buyer behavior

05:09 – Sold-to-list ratios signal a shift to a balanced market

07:11 – Where fix-and-flip opportunities are re-emerging on the buy side

09:27 – Off-market deals: what’s happening and where they still exist

11:38 – The biggest risk in 2026: uncertain exits & longer hold times

14:21 – Why cosmetic flips no longer work without real value-add

16:43 – Lender perspective: cutting losses before deals go sideways

17:03 – GTA market overview: nuance, sub-markets & investor vs end-user demand

18:34 – Why investment-grade properties are getting hit harder than single-family homes

23:45 – Calgary market insights: pricing, build costs & borrower strength

29:41 – Private lending structures: LTVs, draws, reserves & holdbacks

33:55 – Underwriting checklist: ARVs, contingencies & exit strategies

36:10 – Real Halifax case study: tight margins and stress-testing returns

38:19 – Final takeaways: disciplined underwriting wins in 2026

Resources:
Keystone Capital Group
CPLP Instagram: @cplpodcast
Keystone Instagram: @keycapgroup

Find Neal On:
Instagram: @neal.andreino
LinkedIn: Neal Andreino

Find Ryan on:
LinkedIn: Ryan MacNeil
E-mail: ryan@keycap.ca