The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now.

With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber?

Timeline

00:00 Bart Charles joins the show

01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand

04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”?

06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing

09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce

13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update

15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs

17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here?

19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways”

21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities

23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums?

29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk

31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability

32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs

34:28 Are traders still short lumber?

35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine

37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme

39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt

39:51 Locking in Q1 margins

40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now

41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge”

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Tiranth Amarasinghe

Product Marketing Manager

Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Guest

Bart Charles

BCharles@shamrockbm.com