Bored in the AGI Era
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Bored in the AGI Era
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New models keep dropping, but do they change anything? Jacob explains why he's checked out. Igor argues it's worth tracking where the storyline and the evidence diverge. They cover Astra vs. Fable, the AGI claims, labs moving the benchmarks, cheap models catching up, what inference really costs, disputed math results, and why looped transformers worry people who care about monitorability. They close with IPO rumors, data center backlash, and the politics of the winter ahead.
Chapters
- (00:00) - Intro
- (00:23) - Why We're Bored of Model Drops
- (08:26) - AGI Claims and Moving Benchmarks
- (15:56) - Sold vs. Delivered
- (19:16) - IPOs and the Cost of Inference
- (25:06) - Astra, Math Claims, and Looped Transformers
- (31:11) - Winter Predictions
- (39:44) - Outro
Critical Links
Below are the most important links for this episode. For more, visit the episode page on Kairos.fm.
- ARC Prize blogpost - OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on ARC-AGI-3
- One Useful Thing blogpost - Centaurs and Cyborgs on the Jagged Frontier
- METR report - OpenAI–Hugging Face incident investigation
- Fortune article - OpenAI says it cracked Navier-Stokes, one of math's grand challenges
- CNBC article - OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street for mega AI debut
- Fortune article - Hyperscalers hold $662 billion in data center commitments off balance sheet
- Google paper - Measuring the environmental impact of delivering AI at Google Scale
- Axios article - Data center uproar scrambles the midterm election
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