Beyond the Index, Winners, Losers, & What's Next
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- The 2026 sector scoreboard: all 11 sectors ranked, from energy's +28.1% to communication services' −3.1%
- The broadening of the index: why 46.3% of S&P companies are beating the index — a decade-plus first
- Why the Mag Seven flipped from engine to anchor (Microsoft down 20%+), and what the index looks like without them
- The ETF overlap trap: cap weighting, 35–55% in the top 10, and wrappers around the same stocks
- What a Fed rate hike would do to sector leadership — winners and losers under both scenarios
- Buffett's warning: "a church with a casino attached," and why down doesn't mean cheap
- The dials for outperforming: sector weighting, security selection, valuation discipline, income, cash, and tax management
- Taking gains on purpose: the sequence-of-returns lesson in 2026's −4.3% Q1 and +15.2% Q2
- Five second-half themes: electrification, defense, nuclear renaissance, the aging population, and the infrastructure rebuild
- 73% odds of a Fed rate hike by September — up from 26% just a month earlier — and the two culprits behind it
- Warren Buffett: it's tough to find value "when everybody is preferring gambling"
- Blockbuster stock sales — SpaceX's record $75B IPO, Alphabet's $85B raise, SK Hynix ADRs — and whether $500B of new equity can overwhelm the bull market
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- What is value investing and why is it working again in 2026?
Value investing means buying strong, profitable, often dividend-paying companies at sensible prices and holding them patiently — the approach built by Benjamin Graham and made famous by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. It struggled while near-zero interest rates favored growth stocks, but higher rates flipped the equation: in 2026, value sectors like energy (~20%), industrials (~17%), and healthcare (~15%) are outpacing the S&P 500's roughly 8–9%. The appeal is simple — instead of borrowing to chase growth, these companies pay shareholders real income today, and reinvested dividends compound over decades.
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