Betting on the Future: How to Think About Civilizational Change

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Betting on the Future: How to Think About Civilizational Change

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Betting on the Future: How to Think About Civilizational Change This lecture opens a university course on digitalization as civilizational disruption. The central argument is that every major shift in history — from Gutenberg's printing press to the steam engine — traces back to a change in one of three foundational parameters: communication, energy, or logistics. When any of these shifts, the entire institutional order built on top of it eventually collapses and rebuilds. Computer science, the lecturer argues, is doing this again — this time to the communication layer that holds society together. The course is not about predicting the future in precise terms. Several common thinking errors are addressed directly: assuming the future is a linear extension of the present, analyzing isolated factors while everything else changes simultaneously, and mistaking the current state of digital capitalism for the full picture of what digitalization will bring. The lecture draws on Karl Marx's model of base and superstructure to frame how technology shapes institutions and, in turn, how people understand themselves and their roles — and argues that what this moment calls for is a revival of cybernetics as a discipline. - Choosing a career or making policy decisions means placing long-term bets on a world that will look fundamentally different in 15 to 25 years - Historical civilizational change follows from disruptions to energy, logistics, or communication — not from incremental improvement - The institutions we live with today — national states, universities, labor unions, political parties — all emerged from the energy shift of the 19th century - Common analytical errors include linear extrapolation, isolated factor analysis, and mistaking current digital platforms for the endpoint of digitalization - Cybernetics — the study of how societies coordinate and control themselves — is the intellectual framework the course sets out to revive

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