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  • PepsiCo Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis
    Oct 8 2026
    More earnings analysis: https://betafinch.com
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    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex, joined as always by Jordan, and today we're digging into PepsiCo's third quarter 2026 results, reported October 8th. Before we jump in, quick reminder: this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: And there's a lot to unpack here, Alex, because this is one of those quarters where the headline numbers look fine, but the guidance cut tells a very different story.

    ALEX: Right, let's start with the numbers. Organic revenue grew 3.1% — that's actually the fastest growth rate PepsiCo has posted since Q4 2023. Reported revenue was north of 5%. Core operating profit was up 3%, and EPS grew 2%.

    JORDAN: Those top-line numbers are genuinely good news, especially the fact that it was volume-led — global beverage volume up 3%, global snacks volume up 4% excluding a commodity-heavy South Africa grains business. But here's the catch: PepsiCo lowered its full-year EPS guidance, and it's entirely margin-driven.

    ALEX: Right, so let's split this into the two stories — international, which is firing on all cylinders, and North America, which is clearly the problem child. CFO Steve Schmitt said international organic revenue grew 8% with operating margin expansion of 105 basis points. CEO Ramon Laguarta noted international is now 45% of the company's profit year-to-date.

    JORDAN: That's a massive shift in the company's center of gravity. Meanwhile in North America, it's a mixed bag. Foods — meaning the Frito-Lay snacks business — actually improved sequentially. Laguarta made a point of saying that last year snacks volume was negative low-single-digits, and this year it's flipped to positive low-single-digit growth. He credits the price reset strategy plus innovation platforms like portion-controlled packs and the "permissible" portfolio — think SunChips, Smartfood, PopCorners, Simply.

    ALEX: But beverages in North America is where things get ugly. Schmitt said the beverage business actually decelerated in the quarter. Laguarta was blunt about it — he said they're competing well in hydration and energy, pointing to Gatorade, Propel, and the pending integration of Alani Nu and Celsius, but they are explicitly "not competing well" in soft drinks, meaning Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and that whole core carbonated lineup.

    JORDAN: And that word kept coming up over and over — "urgency." Multiple analysts pushed on what that actually means in practice, because it's easy to say urgency and mean nothing. Laguarta's answer was essentially twofold: cut every cost that isn't tied to growth — overhead, corporate unallocated spending, duplications — and reinvest that money into A&M, advertising and marketing, behind the core brands. He also name-checked a new partnership with Publicis for more data-driven, targeted marketing.

    ALEX: Now let's talk about why guidance actually got cut, because this is the part investors should really sit with. Schmitt said input costs are trending higher than expected, mix has been a headwind, and — this is a detail that's easy to miss — PepsiCo got a tariff-related benefit in North America beverages in Q3 that won't repeat in Q4. So that's a double hit: inflation ramping as hedges roll off, plus losing a one-time tariff tailwind.

    JORDAN: And importantly, they're not pulling back on investment to protect the bottom line. Schmitt was explicit that A&M spending actually increased in both international and North America this quarter — double-digit increases in the U.S., in fact. So the margin pressure is a deliberate choice to keep funding growth rather than a sign the business is falling apart.

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    7 min
  • NIKE Q1 2027 Earnings Analysis
    Oct 2 2026
    More earnings analysis: https://betafinch.com
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    WELCOME TO BETA FINCH: NIKE Q1 FY2027

    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex, joined as always by Jordan, and today we're digging into Nike's first quarter fiscal 2027 results. Big one — new CFO, a major restructuring plan, and some eyebrow-raising numbers out of China.

    JORDAN: Lots to get into. Before we do...

    ALEX: Right — quick disclaimer first. This podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Good, let's get into it. Nike's revenue came in at $11.2 billion for the quarter, down 4% reported, 5% currency neutral. EPS was $0.48, down 2%. Gross margin actually ticked up 60 basis points to 42.8%.

    ALEX: And that gross margin improvement is notable because it's happening despite a lot of pain elsewhere. This was really a tale of two Nikes this quarter. CEO Elliott Hill was upfront about it — the "performance" side of the business, think running, basketball, training, football — grew high single digits. But Nike Sportswear, the Jordan Brand, and Greater China dragged the whole thing down.

    JORDAN: Let's unpack those three problem areas, because each has a different story. Sportswear — which is almost half of Nike's revenue — was down low double digits. Part of that was intentional. They cut Dunk revenue by nearly 50%, which alone was a $200 million headwind. But Hill also admitted some aged footwear just didn't sell through, and that there's a broader "lack of energy" in the lifestyle sneaker category right now.

    ALEX: Which, credit to him, is a pretty candid admission for a CEO. He basically said the "sea of sameness" across sportswear — Nike's and competitors' — is hurting everyone, and they're going to break the business into smaller, more targeted consumer segments instead of treating sportswear as one giant audience.

    JORDAN: Then there's Jordan Brand, 13% of global revenue, down mid-teens. This one's a strategy shift — they're deliberately pulling back on retro releases to restore scarcity. Essentially, they flooded the market with Jordan 1 retros and similar drops for years, and now they're rationing supply again so the brand feels special instead of oversaturated.

    ALEX: And North America takes the brunt of that pullback, since that's where the retro business is biggest.

    JORDAN: Right. But the real headline is Greater China — down 26%. That's a steep number.

    ALEX: It is, and management was clear it's not a one-quarter blip. They're doing a full digital marketplace cleanup — cutting off gray-market and discount-heavy online channels and consolidating around official flagship stores on Tmall, JD, and Douyin. CFO Dave Denton actually said guidance assumes China gets worse from here, not better, through the rest of fiscal 2027.

    JORDAN: That takes real conviction to say out loud on an earnings call. Speaking of Dave Denton — this was his first call as CFO. He joined mid-quarter and spent his opening remarks essentially auditing the business in real time, saying results are "below both our expectations and our potential."

    ALEX: The big strategic reveal was a program called "Pace." It's a company-wide operating model overhaul — consolidating from four geographic regions down to three, building a new capability center in Bengaluru, India, and restructuring the workforce. The expected payoff: roughly $2.5 billion in savings.

    JORDAN: But — and this is important for listeners tracking the timeline — that $2.5 billion doesn't show up soon. Implementation costs are about $1 billion, plus $300 million in severance already booked for fiscal 2026. Denton said the bulk of savings land in fiscal 2029 and 2030, with full realization stretching into fiscal 2031.

    ALEX: So this is

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    7 min
  • Costco Q4 2026 Earnings Analysis
    Sep 25 2026
    More earnings analysis: https://betafinch.com
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    WELCOME TO BETA FINCH, YOUR AI-POWERED EARNINGS BREAKDOWN

    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown, where we take the numbers straight from the source and translate them into something you can actually use. I'm Alex.

    JORDAN: And I'm Jordan. Today we're digging into Costco's fiscal fourth quarter and full-year 2026 results.

    ALEX: And before we get going, our standard reminder — this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Okay, let's get into it, because there's a lot here. Costco just closed out fiscal 2026 with over 10% top-line sales growth for the year, and Q4 net sales came in at $93.87 billion — up 11.2% year over year.

    ALEX: And comparable sales were up 9.4% overall, 6.7% once you strip out gas price inflation and foreign exchange. That's actually been a pretty steady band for them — Gary Millerchip, the CFO, mentioned that 6-7% range has held for basically a full year now.

    JORDAN: Right, and net income was $2.998 billion, or $6.75 a share. But here's a wrinkle — that includes a one-time $0.15 per share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Strip that out, and net income and EPS were still up a healthy 12.3% and 12.4% respectively.

    ALEX: The tariff refund story is worth pausing on. Costco got $184 million back in Q4 — that's about a third of what they expect total — and instead of just banking it, they plowed a chunk of it back into member value. Price cuts on everyday stuff: produce, meat, beverages, even home furnishings and hardware.

    JORDAN: Which is very on-brand for Costco. CEO Ron Vachris basically said it outright — when they see lower prices, they see an opportunity. And it's not just talk; they're planning to keep reinvesting the majority of future tariff refunds the same way into fiscal 2027.

    ALEX: Let's talk membership, because that's always the metric everyone obsesses over. Executive members hit an all-time high — 42.3 million, up 9.4% year over year. Total paid membership was 84.1 million, up 3.8%.

    JORDAN: But an analyst on the call — Scot Ciccarelli from Truist — pushed on this pretty hard. Membership growth has been slowing for eight straight quarters. Gary's answer was essentially: this is more of a normalization than a red flag. New sign-ups are still growing, renewal rates ticked up to 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada, and the real story is quality over raw headcount — more executive members, more gas engagement, more digital engagement, all of which correlate with higher spend and stickier loyalty.

    ALEX: The under-40 member cohort is a big part of that story too. It's grown nearly 60% since COVID and now makes up more than a quarter of Costco's total membership base. They spend less initially, but the expectation is they mature into higher-value members over time.

    JORDAN: Now, on the ancillary business side — gas, pharmacy, and travel were the real stars. Gas had a record year, with comps up in the mid-30s, and Costco says it saved members over $3.2 billion at the pump versus market average pricing.

    ALEX: Pharmacy grew nearly 20%, even absorbing headwinds from Medicare pricing changes on drugs, partly thanks to GLP-1 programs and their fertility program driving double-digit script growth. And travel — vacation packages, cruises, car rentals — all grew double digits. There was this incredible anecdote about a member booking a 154-night cruise for over $218,000 and getting an $8,800 shop card back.

    JORDAN: That's a wild flex for what's supposed to be a value retailer, but it kind of shows the range Costco's operating in right now — from Kirkland walnuts down four bucks a bag to six-figure cruise bookings.

    ALEX: Let's touch on digital, because there wa

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    8 min
  • Walmart Q2 2027 Earnings Analysis
    Aug 29 2026
    More earnings analysis: https://betafinch.com
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    **BETA FINCH: Walmart Q2 FY2027 Earnings Breakdown**

    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex.

    JORDAN: And I'm Jordan. Today we're digging into Walmart's fiscal second quarter 2027 results.

    ALEX: Before we jump in — this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Good ground rules. So, Alex, Walmart just posted a really strong quarter. Where do we start?

    ALEX: Let's start with the headline numbers. Enterprise sales grew 5% in constant currency — that's the top end of their guidance. Adjusted operating income was up over 17%, and EPS grew more than 19%. Walmart U.S. comps came in at 2.6%, Sam's Club U.S. hit 4.4%, and International was up nearly 8%, led by China and India.

    JORDAN: But here's the twist — a good chunk of that operating income growth wasn't "organic," so to speak. Walmart received about $2.9 billion in tariff refunds this quarter, and that added roughly 750 basis points to operating income growth. Strip that out, and underlying profit growth was still solid — at the top end of their 7-10% guidance — but the headline number is inflated by a one-time item.

    ALEX: Right, and CFO John David Rainey was upfront about this. He basically said, "look at Q2 and Q3 together" to get the real picture, because they're plowing a lot of that refund money right back into price cuts rather than just letting it flow to the bottom line.

    JORDAN: Which explains the rollback numbers — Walmart U.S. had over 11,000 rollbacks by the end of the quarter, up from 7,200 at the end of Q1. That's a huge jump, and CEO John Furner called it one of the highest counts he can remember.

    ALEX: It's a pretty deliberate strategy — take a windfall from tariff refunds, funnel it into lower prices on things like ground beef and pantry staples, and try to lock in market share. Furner mentioned food share gains were some of the strongest they've seen in a while.

    JORDAN: And that's the bet, right? Price investments now, in hopes it builds durable trust and share gains that outlast the promotional period. Management was pretty candid that there's a lag — you see unit growth first, and the real payoff comes over months, not days.

    ALEX: Let's talk about the stuff that weighed on results, too. Health and wellness was a real drag this quarter — that's their pharmacy business. New regulation called "Maximum Fair Price" for certain drugs hit comp sales by about 125 basis points, worse than they'd expected. They also lost the GLP-1 drug tailwind that helped in prior years.

    JORDAN: Which is interesting because if you back out health and wellness, their core categories — grocery, general merchandise — have been remarkably steady, in that 3-4% range for two and a half years. So the topline wobble is really a pharmacy story, not a "Walmart is losing its core mojo" story.

    ALEX: Now, the part I find genuinely exciting is the platform story — eCommerce, advertising, membership, Marketplace. Global eCommerce grew 23%. Advertising was up 38% globally. Marketplace in the U.S. grew 52%. And membership fee income hit an all-time high, up 17%.

    JORDAN: This is the piece investors should really pay attention to. Rainey made a striking comparison — Walmart's U.S. comp was only about 2.5%, but operating income grew 10% excluding tariff effects. That's four times the revenue growth rate, and he said they haven't seen that kind of profit leverage relative to comp sales in two decades.

    ALEX: Because these newer businesses — advertising, Marketplace, membership — carry much higher margins, and they're growing faster than the core retail business. Roughly half of profit growth this quarter came from those areas.

    JORDAN: The

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    8 min
  • TJX Companies Q2 2027 Earnings Analysis
    Aug 29 2026
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    **BETA FINCH — TJX Companies (TJX) Q2 Fiscal 2027 Earnings Breakdown**

    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex.

    JORDAN: And I'm Jordan. Today we're digging into TJX Companies — the parent of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and Sierra — and their second quarter fiscal 2027 results.

    ALEX: Before we get into it, quick disclaimer: this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Good to have that out of the way. So, Alex, headline number first — how'd they do?

    ALEX: Pretty strong quarter overall. Consolidated comp sales up 4%, which beat their own plan. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.22, up 11% year-over-year, and also well above what they'd guided to. Off the back of that, they actually raised full-year guidance — now looking at $5.15 to $5.20 in adjusted EPS for the year, up 9-10% from last year.

    JORDAN: That's a solid beat-and-raise. But there was one wrinkle in there — Marmaxx, which is their biggest division by far, TJ Maxx and Marshalls combined, only grew comps 1%. Everybody else was humming.

    ALEX: Right, and that's really the story of this call. HomeGoods put up a 7% comp, TJX Canada was up 6%, and TJX International — that's Europe and Australia — was up 7% as well. Those three carried the quarter while Marmaxx lagged.

    JORDAN: CEO Ernie Herrman was pretty candid about what happened there. He called it "self-inflicted" — basically said they didn't have the right merchandise mix in the right stores at the right time. Not a demand problem, not a competitive pricing problem.

    ALEX: Yeah, and he made a point of saying they actually checked — their comps near direct off-price competitors were basically identical to comps in stores without nearby competition. So this wasn't about getting out-priced by anyone. It was execution — certain categories where they just didn't have enough of the right inventory, so shoppers walked in and couldn't find what might've been an impulse buy.

    JORDAN: What I found interesting is he framed the fix as already underway — said sales were improving into August, and he expects to be back to that normal 2-3% comp range for Marmaxx by the fourth quarter, in time for holiday.

    ALEX: They also said they've built in some new systematic planning processes to catch this kind of mix issue earlier. And notably, everyone from buyers up to Herrman himself was looped into fixing it — so it sounds like this got serious internal attention.

    JORDAN: Meanwhile, HomeGoods was the real standout. Let's talk about that — 7% comp, and adjusted segment profit margin jumped 240 basis points to 12.4%. That's a big move.

    ALEX: Herrman was genuinely excited about that one. He talked about HomeGoods becoming this dual-purpose destination — not just the treasure-hunt impulse shopping people associate with it, but now also a place people go for everyday consumable staples, like replenishing kitchen or home goods regularly. That combination is driving really consistent traffic.

    JORDAN: And on the margin side, CFO John Kirby noted it's a mix of the sales leverage from that strong comp, some operational efficiencies, and lower tariff costs boosting merchandise margin.

    ALEX: Speaking of tariffs — that's a thread running through this whole call. TJX actually received tariff refunds during the quarter, and all the numbers we're discussing are on an adjusted basis that strips those out, along with some related compensation accruals tied to them.

    JORDAN: Worth flagging for listeners — gross margin was up 70 basis points to 31.4% in the quarter, largely tariff-driven favorability. But looking into the back half, management guided gross margin roughly flat to slightly down

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    7 min
  • McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis
    Aug 29 2026
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    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown! Today we're digging into McDonald's second quarter 2026 results, and there's a lot to unpack — some real strategic news alongside a leadership change. Before we get into it, quick note: this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Yeah, and this one's juicy, Alex — because it's not the usual "everything's great" call. McDonald's actually came out and said, in Chris Kempczinski's words, "we don't have a strategy problem, we simply didn't execute."

    ALEX: Right, so let's start with the numbers. Systemwide sales grew 4% in constant currency, global comparable sales up 1.3%. Adjusted EPS came in at $3.38, up 5% on a constant currency basis. Solid, but not spectacular.

    JORDAN: And the real story is the U.S. — comp sales grew just 0.8% in the quarter, which was below expectations. International actually carried the day here, with IOM up 1.5% and the international developmental licensed markets up 1.9%, led by Japan posting its tenth straight quarter of positive guest counts.

    ALEX: So what actually went wrong in the U.S.? CFO Ian Borden broke it into pieces. They launched this new "everyday affordable price" menu — 10 items under $3 — in late April, but execution was spotty. Only about 60 to 65% of restaurants actually followed the recommended pricing.

    JORDAN: And here's the kicker — to fund that value push, they pulled back on digital offers and killed the Buy One, Add One for a dollar promotion, which apparently really annoyed their most loyal, high-frequency customers. Kempczinski flat-out called it "a bad trade."

    ALEX: Management said that alone accounted for about two-thirds of the traffic miss. The rest came down to their FIFA-themed marketing campaign in June underperforming expectations.

    JORDAN: There was also this operational overload problem — Chris painted a great picture of it, basically saying "put yourself in a restaurant manager's shoes." You've got K-Pop Demon Hunters merchandise going up, then three weeks later you're flipping the value menu, then a brand-new beverage platform launches, then FIFA. Crew members are getting whiplash, service times went up, satisfaction scores went down.

    ALEX: It's a good reminder that even a company with McDonald's scale and marketing muscle can trip over its own to-do list. Too much "new" at once, poorly sequenced.

    JORDAN: Right, and it bled into July too — Borden mentioned U.S. comps were actually slightly negative to start Q3. So this isn't fully behind them yet.

    ALEX: Now here's where it gets interesting — there's a leadership shakeup. Skye Anderson, previously COO of McDonald's USA, is stepping in as the new President of McDonald's U.S., effective immediately. Joe Erlinger, who ran the U.S. business for nearly seven years, is leaving the company.

    JORDAN: Chris was pretty deliberate about framing this as a planned transition, not a panic move — he name-checked Anderson's 26-year track record, including a stint leading the U.S. West zone where she drove over 30% comp sales growth. But the timing, right after a rough quarter, is obviously going to raise eyebrows.

    ALEX: On the brighter side — beverages. McDonald's launched a new beverage platform in the U.S., Canada, and Germany in May, and early results are beating expectations. Higher checks, strong food attachment, and more than half the traffic is coming after the lunch rush — which is exactly the low-volume window they want to fill.

    JORDAN: They're also leaning into Red Bull Energizers rolling out in the U.S. soon, and Australia just launched the platform in mid-July. This seems like a l

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    7 min
  • Lowe's Q2 2027 Earnings Analysis
    Aug 29 2026
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    I'll write the podcast script now based on the transcript.

    WELCOME TO BETA FINCH, YOUR AI-POWERED EARNINGS BREAKDOWN

    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex, joined as always by Jordan, and today we're digging into Lowe's second quarter fiscal 2026 results, reported August 19th. Before we get into it — this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Good disclaimer to lead with, because this quarter has a little bit of everything — solid execution undercut by some messy competitive dynamics. Should be a fun one to unpack.

    ALEX: Let's start with the topline. Lowe's did $26 billion in sales for the quarter, up 8.3% year-over-year, but that growth is mostly acquisition-driven — comparable sales, meaning existing stores, only rose 0.2%. GAAP diluted EPS came in at $4.27, and adjusted EPS was $4.40, which included an $0.11 benefit from tariff refunds.

    JORDAN: And that $0.11 detail matters more than it sounds like at first. CFO Brandon Sink was clear that even excluding the tariff refund, adjusted EPS beat expectations. So the underlying business performed better than the headline number suggests — that refund wasn't propping up an otherwise weak quarter.

    ALEX: Right, and comp sales broke down interestingly by month — May was down 0.4%, June up 1.7%, July down 1.2%. Some of that swing is just calendar noise, the July 4th holiday shifted between June and July and moved about 75 basis points back and forth.

    JORDAN: But the more important July story wasn't calendar — it was competitive. Management said competitors used their own tariff refund dollars to slash prices, particularly in seasonal categories like grills, patio furniture, and live goods. Lowe's chose not to chase those promotions.

    ALEX: Yeah, CEO Marvin Ellison was pretty blunt about that in the Q&A — he said matching those prices "was not in our financial plan" and wasn't "financially prudent." Basically: we can see who got tariff refunds by looking at whose gross margin cratered.

    JORDAN: Which is a pretty sharp comment aimed squarely at competitors. But it also tells you something about Lowe's discipline here — they'd rather protect margin than chase a short-term share number in a category they view as transitory. Whether that's the right call long-term is the real debate for investors.

    ALEX: Let's talk about where the strength actually showed up, because it wasn't uniform. Lowe's has been leaning hard into what they call the "Total Home" strategy — basically diversifying beyond the DIY homeowner into professional contractors, online, and installed services.

    JORDAN: And that strategy is clearly doing the heavy lifting. Online sales grew nearly 16% — that's back-to-back quarters above 15%. Pro customers kept growing too, especially small and medium-sized contractors. Home Services, the "do it for me" installation business, also grew. Meanwhile, discretionary DIY spending — think big remodeling projects — stayed under pressure.

    ALEX: One thing that jumped out to me was Mylow, their AI shopping assistant. They said it's fielded over 25 million questions from customers and store associates combined, and customers who use it convert at three times the rate of those who don't.

    JORDAN: That's a genuinely strong stat. It's early days for how much AI tools move the needle in retail, but a 3x conversion lift is not a rounding error — that's a real behavioral signal. Worth watching whether that holds up as adoption scales further.

    ALEX: On the Pro side, they've been building out FBM and ADG — Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, two acquisitions aimed at bigger professional and construction customers

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    8 min
  • Home Depot Q2 2027 Earnings Analysis
    Aug 29 2026
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    **BETA FINCH — HOME DEPOT (HD) Q2 FISCAL 2026 EARNINGS BREAKDOWN**

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    ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex, joined as always by Jordan. Today we're digging into Home Depot's second quarter fiscal 2026 results, reported August 18th.

    JORDAN: Good one to cover — there's a lot going on here beyond the headline numbers.

    ALEX: There is. But before we get into it, quick disclaimer: this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    JORDAN: Good to have that out of the way. So, Alex, where do we start?

    ALEX: Let's start with the top line. Home Depot posted $47.9 billion in sales for the quarter, up 5.7% year-over-year. Comp sales — that's sales at stores open at least a year — grew 1.7% company-wide, with U.S. comps up 1.3%. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $4.92, versus $4.68 a year ago.

    JORDAN: And importantly, management said results actually exceeded their own internal expectations. That's notable in this environment — housing turnover is sitting at historic lows, and big discretionary remodels are still under pressure. So beating expectations here is really a story about smaller projects.

    ALEX: Right, this was very much a "repair and maintenance" quarter. Think storage, electrical, hardware, plumbing — 13 of their 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps. Big, expensive kitchen and bath remodels? Still soft. But the bread-and-butter stuff is holding up well.

    JORDAN: What stood out to me is the ticket versus transaction split. Average ticket was up 2.8%, but transactions were actually down 1%. So people are spending more per visit, but fewer people are walking through the door. Big-ticket purchases over $1,000 were up 2.4%, which tells you there's still some appetite for larger single-item purchases — think appliances, portable power tools — even if it's not full-blown renovation spending.

    ALEX: Speaking of portable power, Billy Bastek, their merchandising EVP, called Q2 a record-setting quarter for portable power tools. That's been a real bright spot along with patio and, interestingly, appliances — where they've built out next-day delivery to nearly 60% of the population.

    JORDAN: Let's talk about the tariff piece, because this got a lot of analyst attention on the call. Home Depot received $730 million in IEEPA tariff refunds during the quarter, and $685 million of that flowed through to reduce cost of goods sold. That gave gross margin a roughly 145 basis point lift.

    ALEX: But — and this is the important nuance — that benefit was mostly offset by rising costs elsewhere. About 60 basis points of pressure from fuel, energy, and other input costs, plus another 60 basis points of margin dilution just from the mix effect of the GMS acquisition. Net-net, gross margin only rose about 25 basis points to 33.7%.

    JORDAN: CFO Richard McPhail was pretty direct about this — he said even without the tariff refund, they'd have beaten expectations anyway, it just would've shown up differently. He's basically pre-empting the narrative that Home Depot "missed" underlying profitability and needed the refund to bail them out.

    ALEX: Which makes sense given how the stock commentary was framing it going into the call. Now, strategically, the two big themes this quarter were the Pro customer and interconnected retail — meaning online, delivery, in-store tech all working together.

    JORDAN: The Pro business had a positive comp and actually outperformed DIY, which is a real accomplishment given how much of the housing market is frozen right now. A lot of that comes down to SRS Distribution and the GMS acquisition — those are the specialty distributors Home Depot has folded in to better s

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    8 min