#0058 - How 2025 Really Ended: GTA’s Deep Buyer’s Market and the First Hints of Recovery
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In this year‑end special, Kai walks you through how the GTA, Ontario, and Canadian housing markets really evolved from late October to just after Christmas 2025.
We cover the “Great Rebalancing” in Ontario, record‑high inventory, and why GTA sales are down almost 16% year‑over‑year even as the Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25%. You’ll hear how the condo and pre‑construction crunch is pushing out over‑leveraged investors, what Ontario’s Fall Economic Statement and the iPro/RECO saga mean for trust in the system, and why late 2025 is one of the strongest buyer‑leverage windows since around 2010.
Then we get practical: clear lanes for first‑time buyers, move‑up and move‑down sellers, and investors who want boring, cash‑flow‑sane returns instead of lottery tickets. Finally, Kai looks ahead to 2026–2027, where major forecasts call for double‑digit sales growth and modest price gains, and invites you to use this quiet post‑Christmas window to map your own 12–24 month plan.
If you’ve felt whiplash from the headlines — “record inventory,” “condo crisis,” “recovery coming” — this episode gives you the story arc, the numbers, and what they actually mean for your next move.