Follow The Watchman's Post on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-watchmans-post/id6797946719On Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0341mgjXKRUnbuyiTR9zFVIf this series has earned it, a rating or a short review on Apple Podcasts is the most useful thing a listener can do for this work. It is how the watch gets found.Start free — five briefings and the chokepoint map: https://www.eliasmaren.com/freeKHARG ISLAND: THE WATCH BEGINS — The Aegis Directive, Book Seven. Out Tuesday, November 11.Watchman Edition, $10.99 pre-order ($14.99 after launch): https://www.eliasmaren.com/kharg-islandRead Chapter One, "The Empty Berth": https://www.eliasmaren.com/kharg-island/chapter-oneTHE COMPLETE WATCHMAN LIBRARY — all 21 audiobooks, five series, about 62 hours, $79.99: https://www.eliasmaren.com/audiobooks/complete-watchman-libraryNine days, nine principles. Day Six: five estimates of what the blockade cost, and five interested authors.Day six of nine. PRINCIPLE SIX: No Watch may certify its own evidence for another Watch.What has the blockade cost Iran? There are five published answers and they are nowhere near each other.Five hundred million dollars a day — the President. Four hundred million a day — an analyst at a think tank with a long-stated position on Iran sanctions. Four point eight billion between April 13 and May 1, with thirty-one tankers carrying fifty-three million barrels stuck in the Gulf — the Department of Defense. About two million barrels a day removed, an effect described as "moderate" — Brookings. And in August, the governor of Iran's own central bank: exports have effectively ceased.Five numbers. Every one produced by somebody who needed it to come out a particular way. And Lloyd's List reporting at least twenty-six Iranian ships got past the blockade by April 20, which cuts against all of them.Here is why that is a legal matter and not a statistical one. On Nevitt's test, the blockade's legality turns on its effectiveness — an ineffective blockade is an illegal blockade. Effectiveness is a quantity. And it is being measured, almost entirely, by the party whose operation is being judged.This episode also argues that Principle Six is the generous one — the only one of the nine written to protect somebody rather than restrain them. Because self-certified evidence does not mainly let bad work through. It mainly strips good work of the thing that would have made it count. The analyst who built that $4.8 billion figure carefully gets discounted to exactly the level of one who didn't, because nothing available to anyone outside can tell them apart. The honest party pays for the structure.The Ledger Line: the world's main public oil statistics database, where each country fills in its own figures.And 2 Corinthians 8:20–21 — Paul refusing to carry the collection alone, and paying for it.CHAPTERS(00:00) Five numbers, five authors(01:50) Day six of nine(02:25) Who kept the stats(06:05) The dossier: sorting the five(10:30) The generous principle(12:15) Clyde's Question(14:20) The Film Room: a register is not an office(15:40) The Ledger Line(16:30) One More Thing: 2 Corinthians 8(17:40) Anchor: Deuteronomy 25THE COMPLETE WATCHMAN LIBRARY - all 21 audiobooks, five series, about 62 hours, $79.99:https://www.eliasmaren.com/audiobooks/complete-watchman-libraryThe Maren Brief — the companion brief, Who Counted The Barrels, free, no paywall:https://marenbrief.substack.comThe Watchman documents. The listener concludes.Verify before testify.