High-NA EUV Race: ASML, Terafab 2028 & Japan's Yttrium Crisis
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High-NA EUV Race: ASML, Terafab 2028 & Japan's Yttrium Crisis
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Di:
(00:00:51) Nvidia Vera Rubin Revenue Gap
(00:01:51) Terafab 2028 Volume Target
(00:02:36) Samsung Memory Core Team
(00:03:03) Japan Yttrium Supply Crisis
(00:03:44) Broadcom Signals Hyperscaler Shift
ASML's accelerated deployment of High-NA EUV machines is the upstream event driving every advanced AI chip timeline in 2025 and beyond. In this episode, we unpack what that deployment pace means for TSMC, Intel, and Samsung — and why the lithography chokepoint is both widening and becoming more fragile at the same time.
Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform generates roughly forty billion dollars per gigawatt of compute — a sixty percent premium over Grace Blackwell — making each unit of secured fab capacity materially more valuable than the previous cycle. Yet Nvidia trades at just sixteen times forward earnings against AMD at forty times, a gap the market appears to be pricing around circular financing risk in AI infrastructure.
Terafab, the SpaceX-Tesla joint venture, has committed to volume production in Q3 2028, with an SRAM milestone targeted for Q2 2025. But Elon Musk's own admission of an "insanely fast" schedule is a signal investors should take seriously: equipment acquisition is the minimum condition for a new fab, not the sufficient one.
Samsung's new Core Team R&D unit targets next-generation DRAM and NAND for AI infrastructure, a direct response to Micron and SK Hynix's HBM momentum. And Broadcom's 221% AI revenue surge — driven entirely by custom hyperscaler silicon — confirms the largest buyers are actively building Nvidia alternatives.
The story carrying the most underappreciated risk: Japan's yttrium shortage. China has effectively cut off key shipments, Japan reports only months of remaining supply, and the United States has zero commercial yttrium separation capacity online. This is not a theoretical disruption. It is a live supply chain vulnerability at the heart of chip manufacturing.
This episode includes AI-generated content.
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