Beyond the Forecast: Following the Money with John Kosar
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Beyond the Forecast: Following the Money with John Kosar
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John Kosar, founder, chief market strategist, and portfolio manager at Asbury Research, explains how a technical, quantitative, and data-driven approach can help advisors separate market signals from headline noise. Drawing on lessons from his years on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor, Kosar focuses on following money flows rather than forecasts, using asset flows, breadth, volume, relative performance, and sector rotation to understand what investors are actually doing. With capital moving rapidly between sectors and several market internals still showing signs of weakness, he sees an environment defined more by indecision than a clear shift in leadership.
Kosar also explains how Asbury combines multiple indicators through tools such as the Asbury Six and its Correction Protection Model to avoid overreacting to short-term market moves. Rather than building portfolios around what investors think should happen, he argues for repeatable processes that adapt as the evidence changes, helping advisors participate in market gains while managing volatility and reducing the influence of emotion on investment decisions.
Resources: Asbury Research