Sugar Surplus: Why Sweet Prices Are Turning Sour for Producers in 2026 copertina

Sugar Surplus: Why Sweet Prices Are Turning Sour for Producers in 2026

Sugar Surplus: Why Sweet Prices Are Turning Sour for Producers in 2026

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and today we're diving into what's happening in the sugar markets right now, so stick around.

Let's start with where sugar is trading today. The March New York Sugar Number Eleven contract closed at 14.73 cents per pound, while the March London ICE White Sugar Number Five closed at 418.90, down 7 points. These numbers might seem small, but they tell an important story about what's happening globally in sugar production and demand.

Here's the big picture. According to recent market analysis, we're in what's being called a turning point for global sugar markets. Production is now growing faster than consumption, which means we have more sugar than we need right now. Global sugar production for this season is expected to reach between 189 and 190 million tonnes, while consumption sits at around 177 to 178 million tonnes. That's a surplus of 11 to 12 million tonnes, and it's putting downward pressure on prices worldwide.

Why is this happening? Well, major sugar producing countries are ramping up output. Brazil, the world's largest producer, has increased its sugar production slightly this season. India, the second largest producer, has seen output jump 18.8 percent year over year and is now expected to export more sugar to help manage its domestic supply situation. Thailand, another major player, is also increasing production.

This global oversupply is shifting how prices move. Instead of being driven by crop concerns or weather worries, prices are now being shaped more by trade decisions, export timing, and competition between major exporters. In the international market, we're seeing price volatility driven by when large volumes of sugar hit the market rather than actual shortages.

Now, looking ahead, here's what matters for your portfolio or business. The market is projected to remain relatively flat in price throughout 2026, with any movements coming from short term commercial and logistical factors rather than fundamental supply shortages. Energy prices aren't expected to be a major factor either, given how much sugar is available globally.

For those watching the domestic Indian market, sugar prices have remained stable thanks to expectations that the government may increase the minimum selling price from 31 rupees per kilogram to around 37 to 38 rupees per kilogram. In trading centers across India, prices have held steady with M grade sugar in Muzaffarnagar trading between 3980 and 4100 rupees per quintal.

The takeaway here is that we're in a buyer's market for sugar. With global stocks rebuilding and production exceeding demand, availability is secure, but competition is intense. If you're involved in sugar trading or consumption, this is a period to watch for opportunities as prices face ongoing pressure from exporters competing for market share.

Thanks so much for listening to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I'll be back tomorrow with the latest sugar market updates. Be sure to subscribe and tune in next time for more insights on what's moving the sugar markets. See you then.

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