Sugar Rush or Bust: Brazil's Ethanol Gamble and the Fight at Fifteen Cents
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Sugar Rush or Bust: Brazil's Ethanol Gamble and the Fight at Fifteen Cents
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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and today we're diving into what's happening in the sugar markets right now, including the latest trading prices and what it means for you.
Let's start with the raw numbers. Raw sugar futures, which trade on ICE as the March contract, closed today at fourteen point ninety six cents per pound. That's up about zero point twenty two cents from yesterday, which represents a positive momentum day. The market touched a high of fourteen point ninety eight before hitting some resistance right around the fifteen cent level. For white sugar trading in London, March futures settled at four hundred twenty five point ninety cents per metric ton, also showing gains of about four point eighty cents.
Now here's what's driving these moves. Brazil, which produces about a third of the world's sugar, recently reported that their cumulative sugar output through December rose by point nine percent year over year to about forty point two million metric tons. But here's the interesting twist: processors are choosing to shift more cane toward ethanol production rather than sugar. The ratio of cane crushed for sugar increased to fifty point eighty two percent this season from forty eight point sixteen percent last year, but overall, they're doing less of it in favor of the more profitable ethanol business right now.
On the supply side, the picture remains challenging for prices. Covrig Analytics raised their global sugar surplus estimate for twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six to four point seven million metric tons. That's up significantly from their October projection. The surplus means downward pressure on prices overall, even with some short covering pushing prices up today.
India's government has allowed exports of one point five million metric tons this season to help reduce their domestic glut, though minimal sales have been reported so far. The market is watching this carefully because India is the world's second largest sugar producer.
Looking at the technical picture, the March contract continues to consolidate right around these current levels. The market is somewhat supported by ideas that it's oversold, but it remains limited by that large global surplus we talked about. The key resistance remains at fifteen cents, which the market tested multiple times today but couldn't break through.
So what does this mean for sugar prices going forward? Expect continued volatility as we balance tight near term supply against the reality of global oversupply. The ethanol shift in Brazil is worth monitoring because it could tighten sugar supplies later, potentially supporting prices down the road.
That's your sugar market update for today. Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. Make sure you subscribe and join us next time for the latest in commodity trading. Keep tracking those prices.
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