Brazil's Beans: Why Your Morning Brew Depends on Perfect Weather Down South copertina

Brazil's Beans: Why Your Morning Brew Depends on Perfect Weather Down South

Brazil's Beans: Why Your Morning Brew Depends on Perfect Weather Down South

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This is your Daily Coffee Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, this is Vanessa Clark with the Daily Coffee Price Tracker, and I'm so glad you're here. Whether you're a coffee trader, a café owner, or just someone who loves their morning cup, we've got you covered with what's happening in the coffee market right now.

So let's jump right into today's trading action. Coffee futures closed at 347.08 dollars per pound today, hovering right around where we've been the last few days. If you've been following along, you know we hit some lows earlier this week down around 344 dollars per pound, marking our lowest point since mid-December. But here's the thing, the market has been pretty resilient, and we're still trading well above where we were earlier in January.

What's driving these moves? Well, Brazil is really the story right now. As the world's largest coffee producer, what happens there affects all of us. Traders are getting pretty optimistic about Brazil's upcoming twenty twenty six to twenty twenty seven crop, with estimates holding steady at around seventy to eighty million bags. The weather has actually been cooperating better than we've seen in years, with milder temperatures supporting plant growth. That's huge because Brazil just went through five consecutive seasons of rough weather that really impacted production.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Rain is forecasted for Brazil's main coffee growing regions this week, and that's actually good news at this critical growth stage. Plus, Brazil's upcoming harvest falls within what experts call a positive biennial cycle, which is boosting optimism among growers. Even though Brazil saw a twenty one percent drop in export volume last year, their coffee exports hit a record revenue of fifteen point six billion dollars in twenty twenty five. That tells you the global demand is still really strong.

The inventory picture is also worth watching. Arabica inventories have recovered recently, which has put some downward pressure on prices. We're seeing inventories climb up from their lows, and that's normally bearish for prices, but it's not sending things into free fall because of all those positive fundamentals we just talked about.

Looking ahead, the consensus is actually pretty optimistic. Analysts are expecting coffee to trade around three sixty four dollars per pound by the end of this quarter, with forecasts pointing toward four hundred two dollars per pound in about twelve months.

So here's my takeaway for you today. If you're watching coffee prices, keep an eye on Brazil's weather updates and those crop reports. We're in a sweet spot where supply concerns are easing but demand remains solid. That's typically a recipe for stable to slightly bullish markets.

Thanks so much for tuning in to the Daily Coffee Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I'll be back tomorrow with the latest market moves, so make sure you subscribe and tune in next time. We'll see you then.

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