Cotton Market Stuck Between Technical Breakdown and Tight Supply Fundamentals
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Cotton Market Stuck Between Technical Breakdown and Tight Supply Fundamentals
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This is your Daily Cotton Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Hey everyone, this is Vanessa Clark, and welcome back to the Daily Cotton Price Tracker. Thanks so much for tuning in. Today we're diving into what's happening in the cotton market as we head into late January, and there's quite a bit to unpack.
Let's start with where cotton is trading right now. The most actively traded March contract settled at 64.30 cents per pound today, marking its second lowest close since early January. We're seeing some pretty tight trading here, with prices moving just a few points in either direction. May contracts are sitting around 65.85 cents, July around 67.34 cents, and December looking at 69.07 cents per pound.
Now here's what's interesting. We've got this real disconnect happening in the market right now. On the technical side, cotton just broke below that key 64.50 support level that traders have been watching all week. When you see that kind of technical breakdown, it usually signals that sellers are taking control. But here's where it gets complicated. The fundamental picture from the USDA is actually telling a different story. Global cotton production is expected to fall by more than 350,000 bales, while consumption is rising by over 300,000 bales. That's a tightening market, which should typically support prices. So we've got this technical weakness bumping up against fundamental strength, and the market is basically stuck in a holding pattern.
One thing that's really notable is open interest. We're seeing open interest hit its sixth consecutive all-time high, up more than 2,100 contracts today. That tells us traders are really engaged here, even though price movement has been minimal. The market has essentially been flat since late 2025, trading in a narrow channel and waiting for something to break the stalemate.
What traders are watching most closely right now is the federal weekly sales report. That data can give us real insight into whether demand is actually materializing to support these tighter supply fundamentals. A strong sales report showing over 400,000 bales could reverse the recent selling pressure. Conversely, weak numbers would fuel the bearish case we're seeing in the charts right now.
From a technical perspective, if March contracts break decisively below 63.00, we could see further downside toward 62.40. But that fundamental support from the tighter supply picture should provide some buffer against any major collapse.
Thanks so much for listening to the Daily Cotton Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe and tune in next time for the latest cotton market updates and insights.
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